Application of an Adjoint Model of CMAQ

Advance Contract Award Notice (ACAN)

Title: Application of an Adjoint Model of CMAQ

Solicitation Number: 1000202057

1. The Purpose and Explanation of an ACAN

An Advance Contract Award Notice (ACAN) allows Health Canada to post a notice for no less than fifteen (15) calendar days, indicating to the supplier community that a goods, services or construction contract will be awarded to a pre-identified contractor. If no other supplier submits, on or before the closing date, a Statement of Capabilities that meets the minimum requirements identified in the ACAN, the Contracting Authority may then proceed to award a contract to the pre-identified contractor.

2. Rights of Suppliers

Suppliers who consider themselves fully qualified and available to provide the services or goods described in this ACAN may submit a Statement of Capabilities demonstrating how they meet the advertised requirement. This Statement of Capabilities must be provided via e-mail only to the contact person identified in Section 12 of the Notice on or before the closing date and time of the Notice. If the Bidder can clearly demonstrate they possess the required capabilities, the requirement will be opened to electronic or traditional bidding processes.

3. Proposed Contractor

Carleton University

1125 Colonel By Dr., Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6

4. Definition of Requirements or Expected Results

1. Scope

1.1. Introduction

Health Canada sets national standards to keep the environment healthy - standards that keep water and air pollution low and Canadians safe. In support of the federal government’s Budget 2016 announcement of plans to take action to address air pollution in Canada, Health Canada provides health science and health-based guidance which underpins actions to reduce air pollution.

Health Canada is responsible for conducting risk assessments of emissions from transportation, residential, and industrial sources, and for providing guidance to Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) and Transport Canada (TC) on optimum approaches to reducing the health impact of air pollution. Health Canada is also responsible for providing information to provinces and their delegates through the Air Quality Management System and the Mobile Source Working Group. Within Health Canada, the Air Quality Assessment Division in the Water Air Quality Bureau, of the Safe Environments Directorate, is responsible for gathering information and conducting analyses of health impacts of air pollution. In order to complete the various tasks involved in doing this, they particularly need external assistance in the field of computer modelling of air pollution information.

1.2. Objectives of the Requirement

This contract will provide Health Canada with reports that apply the adjoint modeling methodology to describe the incremental damage (change in health outcomes associated with a small unitary change in emissions) of emissions from the specified industrial sectors. At the completion of this contract, Health Canada will be able to make use of these reports to evaluate the monetarized health benefits of different sector based emission reduction scenarios, compare the benefits that can be achieved by actions in different sectors, and compare the results produced by the adjoint methodology with estimates obtained from other sources.

1.3. Background and Specific Scope of the Requirement

Health Canada is the federal department responsible for helping Canadians maintain and improve their health. The federal Agency provides support for action on air pollution and climate change by developing and applying scientific research that relates air pollution and measures to control it to population health outcomes, and provide guidance to decision makers with respect to the benefits that can be realized through air quality management actions.

Health Canada is required to calculate the health benefits of regulatory actions that reduce air pollutant emissions as an input to Regulatory Impact Assessment Statements. Predicting health benefits of specific air pollution reductions is extremely difficult as the outcomes are determined by the magnitude of the emission reductions, the interaction of emissions with all atmospheric components through chemical and meteorological processes, and ultimately the exposure of the individuals to the resultant pollutant concentrations.

Canada’s decision making on measures for air quality improvement relies on quantitative estimation of benefits and costs associated with practical air pollution control measures. These control measures include a variety of possibilities across different emission sectors. Detailed estimation of monetarized health damages associated with pollutant concentrations can be of significant use in policy development. Health benefits can also be calculated for defined pollution reductions. Health Canada has developed the Air Quality Benefits Assessment Tool (AQBAT) to assess the population health impact of changes in ambient air quality, but linking potential changes in source emissions to ambient conditions. AQBAT requires input of air pollution concentrations that can be generated by various atmospheric modeling and measurement methodologies.

A novel approach to estimating health benefits been developed at the Carleton University Engineering Department. The scientist who is responsible of the approach and his associates have developed an adjoint of the US EPA’s Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system, that examines the problem of impact of emission changes on health outcomes through a “backwards” or “adjoint” sensitivity analysis, i.e. for a specified incremental change in ambient concentration (or health outcome), the contribution of different sources is calculated. In this way the adjoint method can specify the relative importance of different sources to population health outcomes nationwide.

Building on prior independent work on ozone and it’s precursors (Hakami et al., 2007), Health Canada has previously contracted Carleton University to extend this approach to a multi-pollutant framework that includes PM and other health outcomes (Pappin et al., 2016). The results have been particular valuable in the Canadian context for demonstrating the non-linear nature of health benefits at low pollutant concentrations.

Health Canada requires further information that can inform decisions on the relative health benefits that can be obtained by different possible pollution control measures. In order to improve estimation of the health benefits associated with changes in industrial sector emissions of air pollutants, Health Canada requires a means of estimating the health impact of marginal changes in air pollution emissions from different industrial sectors such as base metal mining and smelting and thermal power generation. Other sectors (transportation and iron and steel) may be addressed by invoking option years of this contract.

The following background papers are all available on the Web or can be provided by Health Canada upon request:

Crouse DL, et al. “Ambient PM2.5, O3, and NO2 exposures and associations with mortality over 16 years of follow-up in the Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohort (CanCHEC).” Environ Health Perspect 123 (2015):1180-1186.

Hakami, Amir, et al. "The adjoint of CMAQ." Environmental science & technology 41.22 (2007): 7807-7817.

Pappin, A. J., et al. "Health benefits of reducing NO x emissions in the presence of epidemiological and atmospheric nonlinearities." Environmental Research Letters 11.6 (2016): 064015.

Nasari, Masoud M., et al. "A class of non-linear exposure-response models suitable for health impact assessment applicable to large cohort studies of ambient air pollution." Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2016): 1-12.

Judek, S., et al. "Air Quality Benefits Assessment Tool (AQBAT). User Guide. Version 2 (Draft)." Health Canada, Ottawa, Canada (2012).

This contract will provide data that can be used to evaluate the health impacts that would result from changes in emissions of air pollution, and the co-beneifts of reductions in greenhouse gases.

2. REQUIREMENTS

2.1. Tasks, Activities, Deliverables and Milestone

The contract start date is September 4, 2018.

Delivery Dates

PHASE 1 - Fiscal years 2018-2020

Adjoint model refinement

Report on model refinement and methodology

Sectorial incremental damage methodology

Report on model refinement and methodology

Preliminary meteorological and emissions modelling

Preliminary results for base metal smelting and thermal power generation

Interim report/presentation

PHASE 2 - Fiscal Years 2019-2020

Meteorological and emissions modelling

Report on meteorological and emissions modelling

Air quality modelling and adjoint simulations

Interim report/presentation

Final sectoral results incremental damage curves and co-benefits

Final report

PHASE 3 - Option: Fiscal Years 2020-2023

Sectoral incremental damage estimation for iron and steel industries

Report on iron and steel industries

Multi-year co-benefit estimation for thermal power generation

Report on thermal power co-benefits

Preliminary results for transportation sector

Interim report on transportation sector

Incremental damages for transportation sector

Final report on transportation sector

Multi-year co-benefit estimation for transportation sector

Report on transportation co-benefits

The contractor must perform the following activities in support of the associated deliverables detailed in the previous table. The work has been segregated into three phases:

Phase I Adjoint model of CMAQ and industrial sectors Initial period

Phase II Air quality and industrial sectors Year 1

Phase III Additional industrial sectors and transportation sector - Option: Years 2, 3 and 4

2.1.1. Phase I  Adjoint model of CMAQ and industrial sectors

2.1.1.1 Adjoint model refinement

Develop preliminary adjoint, incremental damage model components. The contractor must prepare and deliver a report on the model components.

2.1.1.2 Sectorial incremental damage methodology

The Contractor must prepare and deliver a report on incremental damage estimates for base metal smelting industries and thermal power generation units in Canada. The estimation of incremental damage of emissions of existing base metal smelting and thermal power generation industries in Canada covers short-term and long-term exposure to ozone, NO2 and PM2.5. The report must also include an analysis of spatial variability in estimated incremental damage values.

2.1.1.3 Preliminary meteorological and emissions modelling

The contractor must perform the required modelling that will be used to complete the following activities.

2.1.1.4 Preliminary results for base metal smelting

The Contractor must prepare and deliver a preliminary report on processing of adjoint simulation results for incremental damage estimation from base metal smelting, including final results and conference presentation. The estimation of incremental damage of emissions of existing base metal smelting industries in Canada covers short-term and long-term exposure to ozone, NO2 and PM2.5. The preliminary report must also include an analysis of spatial variability in estimated incremental damage values.

2.1.1.5 Preliminary results for thermal power generation

The Contractor must prepare and deliver a preliminary report on processing of adjoint simulation results for incremental damage estimation from thermal power generation, including final results and conference presentation. The estimation of incremental damage of emissions of existing thermal power generation units in Canada covers short-term and long-term exposure to ozone, NO2 and PM2.5. The preliminary report must also include an analysis of spatial variability in estimated incremental damage values.

2.1.2 Phase II Air quality and industrial sectors

2.1.2.1 Meteorological and emissions modelling

The Contractor must prepare and deliver a report on preliminary meteorological and emissions related to base metal smelters and thermal power generation units.

2.1.2.2 Air quality modelling and adjoint simulations

The Contractor must prepare and deliver an interim report on air quality modelling and adjoint simulations for base metal smelters and thermal power generation units.

2.1.2.3 Final sectoral results incremental damage curves and co-benefits

The Contractor must prepare and deliver a final report on a multi-year GHG co-benefit estimation as the project will also use the calculated incremental damage information from CMAQ adjoint to estimate benefits associated with criteria pollutant emission reductions that coincide with GHG controls for the two sectors mentioned above.

2.1.3 Phase III  Additional industrial sectors and transportation sector

2.1.3.1 Sectoral incremental damage estimation for iron and steel industries

The Contractor must prepare and deliver a report on incremental damage estimates for iron and steel industries. The estimation of incremental damage of emissions of existing iron and steel industries in Canada covers short-term and long-term exposure to ozone, NO2 and PM2.5. The report must also include an analysis of spatial variability in estimated incremental damage values.

2.1.3.2 Multi-year co-benefit estimation for thermal power generation

The Contractor must prepare and deliver a report on a multi-year GHG co-benefit estimation the thermal power generation sector as the project will also use the calculated incremental damage information from CMAQ adjoint to estimate benefits associated with criteria pollutant emission reductions that coincide with GHG controls.

2.1.3.3 Preliminary results for transportation sector

The Contractor must provide an interim report on initial results from the incremental damage estimation procedures for this sector including details on the approach taken specifically for the transportation sector, and providing any specific procedures (if any) that are unique to this sector (in comparison to the industrial sectors).

2.1.3.4 Incremental damages for transportation sector

The Contractor must write a final report on incremental damage estimates for the transportation sector. The estimation of incremental damage of emissions of on road transportation emissions in Canada covers short-term and long-term exposure to ozone, NO2 and PM2.5. The final report must also include an analysis of spatial variability in estimated incremental damage values.

2.1.3.5 Multi-year co-benefit estimation for transportation sector

The Contractor must provide a report on the estimation of the co-benefits of CO2 reductions from the transportation sector in a multi-year context.

5. Minimum Requirements

Any interested supplier must demonstrate by way of a Statement of Capabilities that it meets the following minimum requirements:

a) At least one active member of the team must have a doctorate in environmental engineering with a specialization relevant to this project (e.g., chemical transport models, adjoint modelling) (provide copy of diploma) and at least six years of experience gained within the last ten years in developing adjoint simulation models (demonstrated by a record of grants and/or publications over time).

b) Experience (at least 5 years) in conducting and publishing studies in peer reviewed journals of air pollution modelling using Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ), as well as proven expertise in the development of modelling tools for CMAQ and generating air pollution surfaces for Canada using CMAQ.

c) The supplier must have ownership of, or access to the required information to generate air pollutant emission ((NOx, SOx, PM, VOCs) and meteorological information for Canada and the United States necessary to create seasonal and annual air pollution surfaces with national coverage of Canada using CMAQ with a 12 km or better grid.

d) Ownership of, or right to use, an adjoint of the US EPA CMAQ model that is capable of forward (decoupled direct method) and backward (adjoint) sensitivity analysis for gaseous and particulate pollutants whereby the model provides simultaneous sensitivity information about specific receptors with respect to all sources and parameters. The model must also be amalgamated with Health Canada’s marginal damage estimation software (Air Quality Benefit Assessment Tool) in order to calculate incremental benefits associated with emission sources.

e) The supplier must have the in-house expertise and demonstrated capacity (peer-reviewed publications) to utilize adjoint models to address ozone and fine particulate matter and to address specific sources of these substances and the precursors to these substances.

f) the supplier must have the ability to use the models and results to estimate CO2 co-benefits from specific industrial and transportation sectors evaluated in the conduct of this work.

6. Reason for Non-Competitive Award

Part 1, Section 6 (d) only one person is capable of performing the contract.

7. Applicable trade Agreements and Justification for Limited Tendering or the Procurement Strategy for Aboriginal Business

This procurement is subject to the following:

* Canadian Free Trade Agreement, (CFTA), Article 508

* World Trade Organization (WTO), Article VIII

* North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Article 1011

8. Ownership of Intellectual Property

The Contractor will own the Intellectual Property Rights.

9. Period of the Proposed Contract

The contract period shall be from date of contract award until March 31, 2020.

The Contractor grants to Canada the irrevocable option to extend the term of the Contract by up to three (3) additional one (1) year period(s) under the same conditions. The Contractor agrees that, during the extended period of the Contract, it will be paid in accordance with the applicable provisions as set out in the Basis of Payment.

Canada may exercise this option at any time by sending a written notice to the Contractor at least ten (10) calendar days before the expiry date of the Contract. The option may only be exercised by the Contracting Authority, and will be evidenced for administrative purposes only, through a contract amendment.

10. Estimated Value of the Proposed Contract

The total estimated value of the proposed contract should not exceed $ 200,000.00, including travel and living expenses (if applicable). Taxes are not applicable.

11. Closing Date and Time

The Closing Date and Time for accepting Statements of Capabilities is August 8, 2018 at 2 p.m. EST.

12. Contact Person

All enquiries must be addressed by e-mail to:

Name: Benoît Galipeau
E-Mail: benoit.galipeau@canada.ca