Particulate Matter Component Risk Analysis and Concentration

NOTICE OF PROPOSED PROCUREMENT (NPP)

Solicitation #: 1000184225 Closing Date: October 06, 2016 Time: 2 p.m. EDT

This requirement is for the department of Health Canada.

Title: Particulate Matter Component Risk Analysis and Concentration

Scope:

Ambient particulate matter (PM) refers to a range of varied substances from human and natural sources, which exist as liquid droplets or solids over a wide range of sizes. When these particles are suspended in the air, they form important components of air pollution. These particles are either emitted directly, from a wide range of sources, or are formed in the atmosphere from the chemical changes of gasses such as sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds.

A number of studies from epidemiology, toxicology and controlled-exposure experiments have reported the adverse health effects of PM (which vary from illnesses related to the heart or lungs, to early death) but fewer studies have been done to estimate the public health risk attributable to the individual components of PM, or to examine the way in which risk varies over the level of exposure (concentration-response (C-R) shape) for PM mass or components. New methods have recently been developed to flexibly characterize the C-R shape between air pollution and health outcomes for long-term (chronic) exposure, but these have not been applied to short-term (acute) exposure.

The primary goal of the project will be to investigate the adverse health risk attributable to components of PM2.5, and to examine the shape of the concentration-response (C-R) function for PM2.5 and its components. To achieve this goal, the study has been broken into three overlapping phases. The first phase (2016-2017) will focus on the collection, validation and interpolation of reliable data for PM2.5 mass and its components. The second phase (2017-2018) will focus on statistical models and methods for estimation of annual adverse health risks due to PM2.5 and its components, beginning with mortality and proceeding to morbidity. The third phase (2018-2019) will extend these risks into estimation of the PM2.5 concentration-response curve, both locally for cities, and nationally for the Canadian population if the number of cities is not too small for statistical power of risk estimates. The first phase is considered below.

Objectives of the Requirement

This work is supposed to provide information on the following questions:

(1) What PM components have reasonable data availability for risk estimates in Canada? We need a list of PM components.

(2) What models have been developed PM components?

(3) Are there good models to be applied to Canada PM components? If so, what to be modified or improved?

a. One model would be good for all PM components in the list from (1)?

b. If not, what would be main factors to determine risk models?

(4) How to best model multiple PM component models?

(5) Any differences in model between mortality and morbidity?

(6) How best to deal with pre-2000 PM data?

(7) How best to model the interaction between temperature and PM components if exists?

Estimated Value:

The contract will be awarded to the bidder with the highest technical score within the budget of $60,000 for each fiscal year (one year contract with two option years, taxes not included).

Ownership of Intellectual Property:

The Contractor will own the Intellectual Property, while the Crown will have an irrevocable, royalty-free licence to use the IP.

Security Requirement:

There is no security requirement.

Mandatory Requirements:

M1. The bidder’s project leader must have a PhD from a recognized university with specialization in Statistics with experiences in Bayesian hierarchical models, Spectral analysis, and Smoother functions.

M2. The bidder’s project leader must demonstrate that within the last 5 years, they have undertaken at least three projects on Canadian population health for environmental issues.

M3. The bidder’s project leader must have at least two peer-reviewed publications on Canadian population health in scientific journals listed in the Science Citation Index Expanded (within the last 5 years).

M4. The bidder’s project leader must show that they have experience working with Canadian environmental databases on fine particular matter (PM10 & PM2.5) and climate.

M5. The bidder’s project leader must have experience working with generalized additive model and/or generalized Poisson model.

M6. The bidder’s project leader must show that they have experience working with statistical software such as R.

Selection Methodology

The contract will be awarded to the bidder with the highest technical score within the budget of $60,000 for each fiscal year (one year contract with two option years, taxes not included).

Enquiries regarding this Request for Proposals are to be submitted in writing to:

Robert Merrick

Contracting Authority

E-mail: Robert.Merrick@hc-sc.gc.ca