Redevelopment of Burn-P3 model as a SyncroSim Package

***Amendment 01 is hereby issued to correct a closing date error discovered in the English version of article number 15 (in the Advance Contract Award Notice). The closing date for a submission of a "Statement of Capabilities" is January 19, 2022. All other information found in the ACAN remains the same. We apologize for the error.***

The Canadian Forest Service (CFS) developed the Burn-P3 model in 2005. Since that time, it has been used to evaluate wildfire risk throughout Canada. The model is a Monte Carlo fire simulator: it runs large numbers of iterations (10s to 100s of housands), each burning a variable number of fires using a deterministic fire growth model (Prometheus), but the number of fires, ignition locations and burning conditions (weather, season, length of time it burns) for each fire are drawn from user-defined probability distributions. A recent user-needs assessment of the Burn-P3 program has revealed that while the method of the Burn-P3 model is robust, the software itself is outdated, very slow, dependent upon a single fire growth model (FGM), and not flexible enough to address the growing needs of the wildland fire management community. We intend to replace Burn-P3 with a new, modular system that leverages existing, multiple, and interchangeable FGMs that can be instructed to interact with models simulating wildlife habitat, forest insect and disease spread, and climate change. In collaboration with ApexRMS, the CFS has developed a new “proof-of-concept” prototype of the Burn-P3 model as a SyncroSim Package, and would now like to develop this prototype into a fully functional model.

The new SyncroSim CFS Burn-P3 Package prototype has proven it can address these shortcomings. This prototype preserves the core functionality of the Burn-P3 model, yet increases its flexibility, utility, and processing speed. The CFS intends to continue collaborating with ApexRMS to convert this prototype into a fully functioning version of an open source CFS Burn-P3 Package.