Environment and Protected Areas - Request for Proposal - Alberta Northern Basin Modelling Project

This project aims to enhance, recalibrate, validate, and operationalize the existing HydroGeoSphere (HGS) models for the Peace and Athabasca River Basin in northern Alberta to support near real-time, short-term, and seasonal hydrological forecasting. Both basins have been identified as priority due to recent multi-year droughts, changing snowpack and ice dynamics, reduced wetland and peatland storage, and increasing water-use pressures on communities, industry, and aquatic ecosystems. Unlike many southern Alberta basins that benefit from extensive reservoir infrastructure, the Peace and Athabasca basins are heavily reliant on natural storage in snowpack, wetlands, lakes, and shallow groundwater systems, making them especially vulnerable to prolonged dry conditions and low flows. EPA has previously invested in the development of HGS models for northern river basins, including the Peace and Athabasca River Basins, primarily for climate-change impact assessment. The developed models represent fully integrated surface–subsurface hydrology and capture key processes such as surface runoff, groundwater flow, and snowmelt. However, they are not yet configured for operational forecasting, as they lack real-time meteorological data integration needed for model initialization (e.g., digital twin implementation), and require additional optimization, validation, and workflow enhancements to support robust near real-time streamflow forecasting.