Development of Integrated Statistical Databases, Statistical Models, and Scientific Manuscripts Investigating the Relationship Between Ambient Air Pollution and COVID-19 Across Three Phases: Pre-Pandemic, Pandemic, and Post-pandemic Emergency

Nature of Requirements:
The following is a summary of the statement of work for this requirement.

Development of Integrated Statistical Databases, Statistical Models, and Scientific Manuscripts Investigating the Relationship Between Ambient Air Pollution and COVID-19 Across Three Phases: Pre-Pandemic, Pandemic, and Post-pandemic Emergency.

Health Canada requires scientific, analytical, and reporting services to examine the complex, bi-directional relationship between ambient air pollution (AP) and COVID-19 across three phases:
1. Pre-pandemic (2011–2019)
2. Pandemic (Jan 2020–Dec 2022; early vs late by community immunity)
3. Post-pandemic emergency (2023–2024)

The Contractor will integrate multi-source datasets (i.e., AP, climate, built environment, COVID-19 health outcomes, serosurvey, wastewater, and intervention indices) and apply multi-pollutant, time-varying and spatial statistical models to quantify effects on COVID-19 and non-COVID outcomes (e.g., cardiopulmonary), stratified by age, sex, urban/rural built environment, and socio-economic factors.

The scope of work includes the integration of multiple datasets (i.e., environmental, health, behavioural, and contextual) across seven provinces, with analyses conducted at the census division (CD) level and, where possible, at individual-level resolution through secure data environments (e.g., Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences [ICES] for Ontario). Deliverables are expected to include harmonized databases, analytic pipelines, and manuscripts that summarize risk estimates across three timeframes: pre-pandemic (2011–2019), pandemic (2020–2022, subdivided by levels of community immunity), and post-pandemic emergency (2023–2024). Analyses will be stratified by age, sex, and built environment (i.e., urban/rural) to identify areas of health inequity among populations experiencing elevated risks or vulnerabilities across different contexts.

Objectives: The overall aim of this requirement is to produce new, policy-relevant evidence on how ambient AP interacts with COVID-19 and related public health measures to influence population health outcomes in Canada. Existing studies have shown links between AP and COVID-19 severity, but they largely focused on early phases of the pandemic, single pollutants, or long-term exposures. This contract will deliver a comprehensive assessment of these relationships across three phases—pre-pandemic (reference period), pandemic, and post-pandemic emergency—while also examining the effect of pandemic-related changes such as vaccination, government interventions (e.g., lockdowns), and behavioural shifts (e.g., face mask, social distance) on AP-related COVID and non-COVID health outcomes. Through the integration of environmental, behavioural, health, and contextual datasets, the contractor will generate harmonized databases, reproducible analytic pipelines, and draft manuscripts for peer-review that quantify health risks across short-, medium-, and long-term exposure windows, stratified by age, sex, built environment, and other factors.
These deliverables will provide Health Canada with:
• Updated risk estimates for AP-related mortality and hospitalization, including COVID-19 outcomes;
• Evidence of modification of AP–health outcome relationships by pandemic interventions and immunity;
• Equity-relevant findings for vulnerable subpopulations and different community settings; and,
• Actionable inputs for health impact assessment tools (e.g., Air Quality Benefits Assessment Tool [AQBAT], Air Quality Health Index [AQHI], and Air Health Trend Indicators [AHTI]).

The intended use of the completed requirement is to strengthen Health Canada’s capacity to assess, manage, and communicate the health risks of AP during and beyond pandemics. The work will support regulatory risk management, guide public health communication strategies, inform evaluations of government interventions, and enhance preparedness for future pandemic emergencies.

Deliverables: Integrated Databases + metadata, Results packages, Manuscripts. All Reports must be submitted in English.

Contractor Obligations:
1. Unless otherwise specified, the Contractor must use its own equipment and software for the performance of this Statement of Work
2. Maintain audit trails and version control
3. Adhere to all data governance, privacy, and security requirements
4. Provide comprehensive documentation of purchased/commissioned tools or equipment (if any) as per contract terms
5. Maintain reasonable care and custody of any Canada-vested assets until directed by Project Authority
6. Deliver high-quality, reproducible analyses and documentation per Sections 3.1–3.4

Location of Work, Work site and Delivery Point
1. The majority of the work is expected to be completed at the Contractor’s site with secure remote collaboration
2. Occasional virtual or in-person meetings will occur as requested by the PA
3.Deliverables are to be submitted electronically to the Project Authority.