GPCM Model

Retainer Services - Energy Sector

The GPCM Model is a Natural Gas market forecasting system that contains a Gas Pipeline Competition Model and a Network Flow Model of North American Gas Market. The Model computes natural gas supply, natural gas demand, prices and basis, pipeline flows, storage activity and estimated NGL production. The model covers about 89 gas supply areas, 5 supply types, 13 shale plays including Montney, 22 LNG Import terminals and 12 LNG export terminals, 220 pipelines, 443 storage areas, 113 demand areas, 5 demand sectors and 93 market points. The GPCM model offers the most comprehensive coverage of the North American natural gas flow dynamic in the market. It is considered a standard in the industry and is used by industry, banks and government. FERC is one of the active users of the GPCM model.

The National Energy Board currently uses energy demand model and an energy supply model for natural gas. What is missing is a natural gas flow model that can identify the regional and international flows. This gap has become even more obvious as the flows of natural gas are changing in response to the shale gas revolution in US. The demand and supply models are used within the EF modelling framework, but since the NEB does not have a natural gas flow model, the NEB is not able to forecast actual exports and imports.

The contract being proposed is for a 12 months license to use the GPCM model and the GPCM data base consisting of all the elements stated above in the first paragraph. The NEB intends to use this model as a learning tool to be able to build a similar model inhouse. The NEB was working on building such a model; however, the NEB has encountered challenges on several fronts including knowing where the detailed data needed for such a model can be found. Some methodological challenges have also been encountered.

In addition to helping construct a NEB natural gas flow model, the model can be used to

• Enhance market monitoring on shifting natural gas flows in North America including running some what-if scenarios

• Enhance forecasts of Canadian natural gas prices, including what is developed for EF

• Inform Applications in the future to check participant claims on supply sources and projections of market evolution

• Inform on the Impact of Board orders- ie: pressure restrictions, mandated outages, etc by running some what-ifs on the impact of these restrict ions on price differentia ls on Canadian pipeline systems.

The GPCM model is a market leader in terms of detail and coverage of natural gas industry and the modelling functionality it offers.

Estimated Value: $110,000.00 CDN GST exempt

Period of Contract: Will be for one (1) year

Reason for Single Tendering Conditions: In accordance with the Government Contract Regulation exception, this requirement is being directed to the proposed Contractor who is the only known company capable of performing the contract.

Proposed Contractor:

RBAC Inc.

14930 Ventura Blvd., Ste 210, Sherman Oaks. CA 91403

USA