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LOW CARBON FUEL STANDARD CREDIT PRICE FORECAST

Solicitation number BC204722

Publication date

Closing date and time 2024/10/24 19:30 EDT

Last amendment date


    Description
    The project will require that the Proponent develop a model to forecast the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credit price through to 2030 and beyond (to at least 2040). The model will employ an advanced statistical forecasting methodology such as regression analysis or machine learning, and have the ability to conduct scenario analysis so that key assumptions can be varied, tested, and compared. The model will be able to identify the key factors that most significantly affect the credit price.

    The successful Proponent will work with Low Carbon Fuels Branch (LCFB) staff to develop the model and provide oversight on key assumptions in the model design.

    Key evaluation metrics for the project include:
    • The data used to inform the model.
    • The forecasting method employed: the Proponent must clearly describe the forecasting methodology and justify its validity.
    • Explains how scenario analysis will be implemented in the model, including uncertainty analysis on key parameters.
    • Provides estimations on the accuracy of the approach.
    • Provides a variable significance ranking that explains which variables are most influential in determining the credit price forecast.
    • Demonstrates a comprehensive understanding of the B.C. fuel market, the LCFS, and the broader fuel industry.

    The model should be designed to be responsive to changes in underlying data to ensure that results are updated when independent variables are changed. Results should be presented using one or more formats: excel, online model, R script, PPT and/or others.

    Further details as to the scope of this opportunity and the requirements can be found within this RFP.

    Contract duration

    The estimated contract period will be 7 month(s).

    Trade agreements

    • Please refer to tender description or tender documents

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    Contact information

    Contracting organization

    Organization
    Low Carbon Fuels Branch
    Contracting authority
    Quentin Mowat-Amiet
    Email
    Quentin.Mowat-Amiet@gov.bc.ca
    Bidding details

    Full details for this tender opportunity are available on a third-party site

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    Summary information

    Notice type
    Other
    Language(s)
    English
    Contract duration
    7 month(s)

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