Development of advanced prediction models for Cerenkov radiation emission in spent fuel

1.0	Introduction
The Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) has a requirement for the development of advanced prediction models for Cerenkov radiation emission in spent fuel. The purpose of this advance contract award notice (ACAN) is to signal the CNSC’s intention to award a contract for these services to: 
Channel Systems Inc.
S2-24 Aberdeen Ave.
P.O. Box 188
Pinawa, Manitoba
R0E 1L0
Before awarding a contract, however, the CNSC would like to provide other suppliers with the opportunity to demonstrate that they are capable of satisfying the requirements set out in this ACAN, by submitting a statement of capabilities within the posting period for this ACAN, which is 15 calendar days.  
If, during the posting period, other potential suppliers submit a statement of capabilities that meets the requirements set out in this ACAN, the CNSC may proceed to a full tendering process via the Government Electronic Tendering Service or by inviting bids directly from suppliers.
If no other supplier submits, on or before the closing date, a statement of capabilities meeting the requirements set out in the ACAN, a contract will be awarded to the above-noted supplier.
2.0	Background

The Digital Cerenkov Viewing Device (DCVD), whose hardware was developed by Channel Systems Incorporated, through funding from the Canadian Government, was authorized for partial defect test of spent fuel underwater in 2011. The measurement is based on the comparison between a calculated expected Cerenkov light emission and the measured intensity. Cerenkov light intensity is mainly driven by the burn-up and cooling time of the fuel, but there are second order effects that in some conditions can have significant contribution. These include:
1.	Initial fuel composition
2.	Irradiation history
3.	Fuel design

Additionally, when in a fuel population there is a wide range of burn-up and cooling times, it can happen that fuels with emission intensities that differ by several orders of magnitudes can be stored in close proximity to one another. In this case, cross talk cannot be ignored and must be estimated. Channel Systems developed a Microsoft Excel macro in 2008 that performs a quadrature calculation from the curves to interpolate the expected intensity based on a fuel’s burnup and cooling time. This method is quite reliable in longer cooled fuels (after about 10-12 years). During a study of near-neighbour effect in 2010, it became obvious that the predicted Cerenkov intensity was not accurate enough to effectively perform the partial defects process when the fuel measured had only been cooled for approximately two years. Upon investigation, the problem was shown to be that the fuel irradiation cycle was much different than the default used by Rolandson. In addition, the initial enrichment also has an effect that is pronounced in fuel with short cooling times, whereas Rolandson assumed an equal burnup in his model rather than any changes to initial enrichment.  
3.0	Objectives
The IAEA needs to acquire capability to accurately estimate Cerenkov light emission for spent fuel of any design, taking into account all the aforementioned second order effects. Additionally, the IAEA needs a mathematical model to estimate the background that is due to cross talk at any measurement position. 
To acquire this capability, the IAEA requires a suitable prediction model for Cerenkov radiation emission in spent fuel that will allow for calculation of Cerenkov light intensity based on the type of the fuel, the initial composition and the irradiation history. The effects of various inserts for PWR fuel should also be investigated. A sample implementation of the proposed model should be developed to allow the IAEA to test that calculation on real case studies.
4.0	Scope of Work
The work is to be split into two phases, with the initiation of phase 2 contingent on the successful completion of phase 1 as determined by the CNSC, in consultation with the IAEA. 
Phase 1: Refresh and extend the Rolandson Curves
The curves produced by Rolandson in 1994 will be reproduced using the new single pin model. The new curves will be extended for longer cooling times (up to 60 years) and higher burnups than the current curves (to 60 Mwd/kgU). 
This approach is being followed for two reasons. First, the curves will be generated using current version of the software which should provide more accurate results, particularly at shorter cooling times. The current version of the ORIGEN software is more accurate than that used in 1994 by Rolandson and uses more nuclides, which provides for a better gamma ray generation prediction than was used in the past. Secondly, this step will act as a validation of the single pin model against Rolandson’s values. There should be minimal differences between the values generated by Rolandson and the values generated by the new model. 

Phase 2: Automate the single pin model to run on large data sets (contingent on the successful completion of Phase 1 as deemed by the CNSC, in consultation with the IAEA)
The current single pin model requires about 3-5 minutes of compute time, but 15-20 minutes of preparation and data manipulation time by an inspector to run for each fuel assembly. For a typical fuel pond where there can be several hundred fuel assemblies this process is not feasible. The intent of this phase is to automate the steps involved performing a run of the single pin model to calculate the expected Cerenkov intensity. This way, all preliminary work can be done ahead of a visit to a facility by an inspector. The resulting software would accept an input file containing the fuel assembly characteristics and produce an output file suitable for use with the DCVD. The input file will contain the required data about the fuel assemblies to be evaluated (irradiation history, discharge date and initial enrichment). The code would then automate the steps required to calculate the expected intensity and deliver the DCVD input file as its output.  
5.0	Tasks to be Performed
Phase 1: Refresh and extend the Rolandson Curves
1.	Prepare the ORIGEN input files for the 40 MWd/kgU and 30MWd/kgU curves and run
the GEANT model against these curves.
2.	Verify that the modelled output matches (within reason) the curves as generated by Rolandson.
3.	Prepare and run the model points for each of the remaining curves. Each curve will include a 6 month and 9 month data point and a 50 and 60 year data point. This should accommodate the IAEA requirements for the foreseeable future. 
4.	Update the Microsoft Excel macro to include this new data.
5.	Prepare a completion report that documents the new curves.
6.	Prepare a software requirements document to determine how the IAEA would use an automated version of this software.
7.	Prepare a proposal for the development of the automated integrated modelling package.

Phase 2: Automate the single pin model to run on large data sets (contingent on the successful completion of Phase 1 as deemed by the CNSC, in consultation with the IAEA)
1.	Prepare a software development plan that contains
	Requirements document on how the IAEA will use the code
	The data input requirements and the format of the results
	Functional specification on how the process will work and what software will be used
	A verification plan on how we will determine if each requirement has been met
	A validation plan to determine if the software is generating the correct results
	A test plan to show how the software will be tested
2.	Automate single pin modelling process
	Accept the data input file and generate Origen input files
	Run Origen against the input files
	Convert Origen output source terms for input to GEANT
	Run the GEANT program
	GEANT output and photon count
	Convert the GEANT output to a photon flux
	Output the calculated flux into the DCVD input file
3.	Verify modelling results
	Compare model results to measurements by modelling spent fuel from previous measurement campaigns (Forsmark near neighbour, Rolandson curves, Taiwan measurements)
4.	Implement the software
	Provide software to the IAEA
	Provide implementation support and training
The proposed contract is for the provision of a First Final Report (Phase 1 deliverables) and  a Second Final Report (Phase 2 deliverables), for delivery by January 30, 2016.  
The estimated value of the contract is $50,000.00 to $60,000.00 CAD. Applicable taxes are extra.
6.0	Minimum Mandatory Requirements
Any interested supplier must demonstrate by way of a statement of capabilities that it meets the following requirements:
•	Experience in calculating Cerenkov light emission intensity from irradiated fuel (e.g. x years’ experience in the past x years in conducting environmental assessments; x number of years in the nuclear industry; x number of projects similar in size, scope and complexity (define)
•	Knowledge and understanding of predicting Cerenkov light emission intensity (e.g. knowledge of the nuclear regulatory process) 
•	Academic qualifications (e.g., graduate degree from a recognized university in the field of science or engineering)
•	Professional designation, accreditation, and/or certification (e.g., professional engineer)
7.0	Justification for the Pre-selected Supplier

•	supplier being the only one with the requisite background and combination of knowledge and experience
Channel Systems Incorporated, as the developer of the DCVD hardware, has years of experience of partial defect measurements of spent fuel assemblies. Not only does it also teach a partial defect course to the IAEA's inspectors, it has also taken part in several investigative studies and routinely meets with the IAEA to discuss the instrument and upgrade possibilities. This ensures that Channel Systems has a very comprehensive understanding of Cerenkov light intensity prediction calculations and, accordingly, the most thorough understanding of the work that needs to be performed.  
8.0	Intellectual Property
Canada intends to retain ownership of any foreground intellectual property arising out of the proposed contract on the basis that the main purpose of the contract is to deliver a component or subsystem that will be incorporated into a complete system at a later date (not necessarily by the original Contractor), as a prerequisite to the planned transfer of the complete system to the private sector (not necessarily to the original Contractor), through licensing or assignment of ownership, for the purposes of Commercial Exploitation. 
9.0	Statement of Capabilities
Suppliers who consider themselves fully qualified and available to meet the specified requirements may submit a statement of capabilities in writing to the contracting authority identified in this notice on or before the closing date of this notice. The statement of capabilities must clearly demonstrate how the supplier meets the advertised requirements.
The closing date and time for accepting statements of capabilities is June 12, 2015 at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
10.0	Contact Information
Inquiries and statements of capabilities are to be directed in writing to:
Dan Simard
Senior Contracting Officer
280 Slater Street
P.O. Box 1046, Station B
Ottawa ON K1P 5S9 
Canada

Telephone: 	613-996-6784
Fax: 		613-995-5086
Email: 		dan.simard@cnsc-ccsn.gc.ca
 
11.0	Policy Information
Government Contracts Regulations: section 6(d): “only one person is capable of performing the contract.”
Subject to the Agreement on Internal Trade (AIT) – (Article 506.12 b)
b. where there is an absence of competition for technical reasons and the goods or services can be supplied only by a particular supplier and no alternative or substitute exists