Development of National and Provincial Macroeconomic and Industrial Scenarios for the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS).

NOTICE OF PROPOSED PROCUREMENT

This requirement is for the department of: Employment and Social Development Canada

TITLE: Development of National and Provincial Macroeconomic and Industrial Scenarios for the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS).

OBJECTIVES

Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) requires the services of a private sector economic forecasting supplier to develop customized macroeconomic and industrial scenarios over a 10-year horizon at the national and provincial levels.

The objectives of the project are to:

• Develop customized detailed macroeconomic and industrial forecasts that support the specific needs of the COPS projections;
• Provide expertise on historical, current and future macroeconomic and industrial trends at national and provincial levels.

SCOPE OF WORK

ESDC will require in 2016-17 the development of one customized national-level 10-year detailed macroeconomic forecast as well as forecasts of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment by industrial sector (see section 5.0 for the 42 industrial sectors used in COPS). The forecasts of GDP and employment by industrial sector must be consistent with the forecasts for total GDP and employment. Macroeconomic and industrial forecasts will also be required for each province. The provincial macroeconomic and industrial forecasts must be consistent with the national-level forecasts for each year of the 10-year forecast period. All forecast variables must be provided on an annual average basis. These national and provincial-level forecasts will constitute the ‘customized scenario’.

The customized scenario, and in particular assumptions about key demographic, economic, labour market and policy variables (such as population growth, commodity prices, labour force participation, trend unemployment rate, labour productivity or fiscal and monetary policy objectives) will be developed in consultation with the Project Authority. The forecasting models used by the contractor must be flexible enough to allow for changes.

As the development of the scenario will be an iterative process involving extensive interaction between the contractor and the Project Authority, timely and easy access to the contractor, by phone or email, will be required during the development of the forecast scenario.

PERIOD OF CONTRACT

March 01st, 2016 to February 28^th, 2017; with an additional four (4) irrevocable options to extend the contract periods. Each option is for an additional one (1) year.

Inquiries regarding this RFP requirement are to be submitted to the contracting officer listed below:
RFP Number: 100004434
Contracting Officer: Mimi Rabouin
Email: nc-solicitations-gd@hrsdc-rhdcc.gc.ca