Hybrid Modelling to generate annual and daily source contributions and ambient concentrations for NO2, PM2.5, and O3 at a high spatial resolution (≤1 km) across Canada

NOTICE OF PROPOSED PROCUREMENT (NPP)

Solicitation #: 1000191423 Closing Date: July 18, 2017 Time: 2 p.m. EDT

This requirement is for the department of Health Canada.

Title:  Hybrid Modelling to generate annual and daily source contributions and ambient concentrations for NO2, PM2.5, and O3 at a high spatial resolution (≤1 km) across Canada

Scope:

Land use regression (LUR) models developed internally and externally by Health Canada under the Clean Air Regulatory Agenda (CARA) have been widely used to estimate exposure in air pollution health studies due to their high spatial resolution (e.g., 5 m). However, LUR models lack temporal resolution, limiting their ability to provide short term (e.g., daily) and historic estimates of exposure. In contrast, chemical transport models (CTMs) such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) and the Global Environmental Multi-scale - Modelling Air quality and Chemistry (GEM-MACH) have been used to predict pollutant concentrations at very fine temporal resolution (e.g., hourly) and can provide critical information attributing ambient concentrations with major source sectors. However, the spatial resolution of CTM models is too coarse to detect within-city pollutant gradients relevant for health studies. This contract will develop hybrid models as follows:

1) Generating longitudinal data including source specific emissions and meteorology data;

2) Using longitudinal emissions and meteorology data to develop hybrid models (as defined above) for NO2 and PM2.5 from 2000-2012 based on local and national LUR models combined with CMAQ;

3) Applying hybrid models to estimate source specific contributions (i.e., gasoline, diesel, biomass burning, and multiple industrial sectors identified by the direct decoupled method in CMAQ) to ambient concentrations of NO2, PM2.5, and O3 from 2000-2012; and

4) Comparing hybrid model outputs with results obtained from source apportionment of ground level monitoring data, as well as oxidative potential and PM component models. Source apportionment and oxidative potential results will be provided by Health Canada. PM component results will be obtained by the contractor from Dalhousie University.

The contractor will develop national hybrid models to provide historic estimates for NO2, PM2.5, and source attribution from 2000-2012, including annual and short term concentrations for each year. The contractor will also provide high resolution historic and short term estimates for all urban areas in Canada with local LUR models (approximately 14 cities). The contractor will develop national CMAQ models to provide historic estimates and source attribution for O3 from 2000-2012, including annual and short term concentrations for each year.

The data generated by this work will be used to estimate historic and short term exposure to NO2 and PM2.5, as well as source contributions, which are needed for future CARA funded health studies led by Health Canada in collaboration with external partners. National hybrid model estimates will allow for characterization of differential health risks associated with gasoline, diesel, and different industrial source sectors, and short term health effects across Canada (including urban vs rural health risks) by providing exposure estimates in areas that are not located near a National Air Pollution Surveillance (NAPS) station.

Objectives of the Requirement

The Hybrid Modelling Contract will generate annual and daily source contributions and ambient concentrations for NO2, PM2.5, and O3 at a high spatial resolution (≤1km) across Canada to support Health Canada’s longitudinal exposure assessment in national health studies. 

Health Canada requires these hybrid model estimates for future health studies—i.e., for linkage with longitudinal cohorts examining health effects across every life stage from fetal development to aging populations, as well as in national time series studies examining health impacts in both urban and rural populations. Finally, exposure and risk estimates derived from the hybrid modeling contract will be compared with other approaches to inform policy development. 

Estimated Value:

The three-year contract, plus two option years, shall not exceed $345,000.00 plus tax, in total.

Ownership of Intellectual Property:

The Contractor shall own the Intellectual Property developed under the contract.

Security Requirement:

There is no security requirement.

Mandatory Requirements:

M1. The bidder must provide evidence in the proposal that the proposed Project Manager or Principal Investigator has a doctorate in one of the following fields: environmental engineering, atmospheric chemistry, or atmospheric physics, with a specialization relevant to this project and at least five years of experience using atmospheric air quality modeling or chemical transport models to generate ground-level ambient air quality estimations for two or more of the pollutants of interest (i.e. must have 1&2, 1&3 or 2&3):

1) nitrogen oxides (NOx) or nitrogen dioxide (NO2),

2) fine particulate matter (PM2.5) including primary and secondary fine PM , and

3) ozone (O3).

M2. The bidder must provide evidence in the proposal that the team includes at least one recognized expert with at least five years of experience in the use of Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) to predict ground-level ambient air pollution concentrations for two or more of the pollutants of interest in Canada (i.e. must have 1&2, 1&3 or 2&3):

1) nitrogen oxides (NOx) or nitrogen dioxide (NO2),

2) fine particulate matter (PM2.5) including primary and secondary fine PM2.5 , and

3) ozone (O3).

M3.  The bidder must provide evidence in the proposal that the team includes at least one team member with at least three years of experience in the use of the Decoupled Direct Method (DDM) in conjunction with atmospheric air quality modeling to conduct sensitivity analyses and / or source attribution for at least two of the pollutants of interest (i.e. must have 1&2, 1&3 or 2&3):

1) nitrogen oxides (NOx) or nitrogen dioxide (NO2),

2) fine particulate matter (PM2.5) including primary and secondary fine PM2.5 , and

3) ozone (O3).

M4.  The bidder must provide evidence in the proposal that the team includes at least one team member with at least two years of experience generating national and local hybrid air quality models that:

• combine local and national land use regression models in Canada with CMAQ or GEM-MACH – using CMAQ or GEM-MACH data with spatial resolution of ≤15 km and temporal resolution of ≤ 1 day, producing hybrid model surfaces with a spatial resolution of ≤1 km and temporal resolution of ≤ 1 day to

• estimate ground level ambient air quality for at least two of the following pollutants in Canada (i.e. must have 1&2, 1&3 or 2&3):

1. nitrogen oxides (NOx) or nitrogen dioxide (NO2),
2. fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and
3. ozone (O3).
    

M5. The bidder must provide evidence in the proposal that the team includes at least one team member with at least one year of experience using Global Environmental Multiscale model - Modelling Air quality and CHemistry (GEM-MACH) to run air quality simulations and generate air pollution estimates for one or more of the pollutants of interest (i.e. must have 1, 2 or 3):

1) nitrogen oxides (NOx) or nitrogen dioxide (NO2),

2) fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and

3) ozone (O3).

Selection Methodology

The contract will be awarded to the bidder with the highest technical score, who can perform the work within the budget of $345,000.

Enquiries regarding this Request for Proposals are to be submitted in writing to:

Robert Merrick

Contracting Authority

E-mail:  Robert.Merrick@hc-sc.gc.ca