Chronic disease and air pollution: analysis of disease trajectory and intervention

HEALTH CANADA ADVANCE CONTRACT AWARD NOTICE

TITLE:  Chronic disease and air pollution: analysis of disease trajectory and intervention

SOLICITATION NUMBER: 1000216761

1. The purpose and explanation of an ACAN

An Advance Contract Award Notice (ACAN) allows Health Canada to post a notice for no less than fifteen (15) calendar days, indicating to the supplier community that a goods, services or construction contract will be awarded to a pre-identified contractor. If no other supplier submits, on or before the closing date, a Statement of Capabilities that meets the minimum requirements identified in the ACAN, the Contracting Authority may then proceed to award a contract to the pre-identified contractor.

2. Rights of suppliers

Suppliers who believe that they are fully qualified and available to provide the services or goods described in this ACAN may submit a Statement of Capabilities clearly demonstrating how they meet the advertised requirement. This Statement of Capabilities must be provided via e-mail only to the contact person identified in Section 12 of the Notice on or before the closing date and time of the Notice. If the Bidder can clearly demonstrate they possess the required capabilities, the requirement will be opened to electronic or traditional bidding processes.

3. Proposed Contractor

Dr. Tarik Benmarhnia

University of California San Diego

9500 Gilman Drive #0725

La Jolla CA, 92093-0725USA

4. Definition of Requirements or Expected Results

Started in April 2019, Chronic Disease and Air Pollution: Disease Trajectory and Intervention (ROUTE) Study aims to provide powerful guidance for policy decision and public actions on air pollution in Canada. ROUTE Study comprises two major objectives: (1) to determine how air pollution influences individuals’ health trajectories and (2) to evaluate the effectiveness of some potential individual- and policy-level interventions in reducing air health effects. There is growing evidence linking air pollution to various chronic disease outcomes, but little is known about the role of chronic exposure to air pollution in affecting individuals’ trajectories over different health states and how this unfolds along different physiological pathways. In addition, air pollution has major public health and economic consequences, but considerable uncertainty exists concerning which actions can be taken to reduce its effects. To achieve the two objectives described above, ROUTE Study will carry out two sub studies to determine (1) how air pollution influences the transition of health states from incidence of major chronic diseases, to their progression, and finally to premature death, and (2) what would be the potential health benefits of implementing hypothetical low emission zones in Canada.

For both studies, ROUTE Study aims to leverage the advent of Big Data and the recent developments in causal inference methodologies in air health research. Specifically, ROUTE Study will depart from the conventional use of small-size cohorts and standard statistical methodologies (e.g., statistical adjustments) which are subject to many sources of biases to the use of advanced causal inference methodologies (e.g., causal mediation and g-methods for complex longitudinal data) and Big Data sources (i.e., Canadian Census and Environmental Cohort [CanCHEC] and Ontario Population Health Environmental Cohort [ONPHEC]). CanCHEC comprises Canadians who filled out long-form censuses in 1991 onwards, and were linked to the Canadian Mortality Database to ascertain vital statistics and the T1 personal master file to obtain annual residential postal code since 1991, which was developed by Statistics Canada in collaboration with Health Canada. ONPHEC comprises the entire adult population in Ontario created through data linkage across various provincial health administrative databases (including chronic disease databases), health survey data, and environmental exposure data, which was developed at ICES with support from Health Canada.

The proposed work to support the two studies described above will consist of the following key tasks: obtaining approvals for accessing CanCHEC and ONPHEC; developing study designs and statistical programming codes using causal inference methodologies; obtaining approval from ROUTE Study scientific team for the proposed study designs, causal inference methodologies, and programming codes (approval process takes one to two months); and completing statistical analysis.

Given the importance of ROUTE Study on informing the Government of Canada in developing timely air pollution mitigation strategies, it is critical that the proposed work be completed between November 1, 2019 and February 28, 2020 (contract period). Health Canada also reserves the right to amend the contract to pick up three one-year options that will be built into the contract (May 1, 2020 to February 28, 2023), dependent on funding availability. Failure to meet the imminent timeline for each period and the full contract period will result in losing the funding of ROUTE Study.

The proposed work supports ROUTE Study by (breakdown by four contract periods):

Contract period (on or around November 1, 2019 to February 28, 2020)

• Obtaining approvals for accessing CanCHEC and ONPHEC;

• Developing a study design that is suitable for decomposing the total causal effect of air pollution on mortality into multiple path-specific effects (including direct and indirect effects through the incidence of chronic diseases), and obtaining approval from ROUTE Study scientific team for the proposed study design;

• Delivering statistical programming codes that implement causal inference methodologies that are suitable for decomposing the total causal effect of air pollution on mortality into direct and indirect effects via incidence of myocardial infarction, and obtaining approval from ROUTE Study scientific team for the proposed causal methodologies and statistical programming codes;

• Completing statistical analysis to decompose the total causal effect of air pollution on mortality into direct and indirect effects via incidence of myocardial infarction, and obtaining approval from ROUTE Study scientific team for the study results; and

• Submitting a final report summarizing methodologies and study findings that is suitable for peer-reviewed journal submission

Option period 1 (May 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021)

• Developing a study design that is suitable for decomposing the total causal effect of air pollution on mortality into multiple path-specific effects (including direct and indirect effects through the incidence and the progression of chronic diseases and their interactions), and obtaining approval from ROUTE Study scientific team for this study design;

• Delivering statistical programming codes that implement causal inference methodologies that are suitable for decomposing the total causal effect of air pollution on mortality into direct and indirect effects via incidence of myocardial infarction, subsequent readmissions, and their interactions, as well as obtaining approval from ROUTE Study scientific team for the proposed causal methodologies and statistical programming codes; 

• Completing statistical analysis to decompose the total causal effect of air pollution on mortality into direct and indirect effects via incidence of myocardial infarction, subsequent readmissions, and their interactions, as well as obtaining approval from ROUTE Study scientific team for the study results; and

• Submitting a final report summarizing methodologies and study findings that is suitable for peer-reviewed journal submission

Option period 2 (May 1, 2021 to February 28, 2022)

• Developing a study design that is suitable for estimating the expected benefit of a hypothetical policy (i.e., low emission zones) on reducing mortality, and obtaining approval from ROUTE Study scientific team for this study design;

• Delivering statistical programming codes that implement novel causal inference methodologies that are suitable for estimating the expected benefit of a hypothetical policy (i.e., low emission zones) on reducing cardiovascular mortality, and obtaining approval from ROUTE Study scientific team for the proposed causal methodologies and statistical programming codes;

• Completing statistical analysis to estimate the expected benefit of a hypothetical policy (i.e., low emission zones) on reducing cardiovascular mortality, and obtaining approval from ROUTE Study scientific team for the study results; and

• Submitting a final report summarizing methodologies and study findings that is suitable for peer-reviewed journal submission

Option period 3 (May 1, 2022 to February 28, 2023)

• Developing a study design that is suitable for estimating the expected benefit of a hypothetical policy (i.e., low emission zones) on reducing the risk of developing chronic disease, and obtaining approval from ROUTE Study scientific team for this study design;

• Delivering statistical programming codes that implement novel causal inference methodologies that are suitable for estimating the expected benefit of a hypothetical policy (i.e., low emission zones) on reducing the risk of incident myocardial infarction, and obtaining approval from ROUTE Study scientific team for the proposed causal methodologies and statistical programming codes;

• Completing statistical analysis to estimate the expected benefit of a hypothetical policy (i.e., low emission zones) on reducing the risk of incident myocardial infarction, and obtaining approval from ROUTE Study scientific team for the study results; and

• Submitting a final report summarizing methodologies and study findings that is suitable for peer-reviewed journal submission

5. Minimum Essential Requirements

Any interested supplier must demonstrate by way of a Statement of Capabilities that it meets the following minimum requirements:

1. The supplier must be able to establish access to the Ontario Population Health and Environment Cohort (ONPHEC) and the Canadian Census and Environmental Cohort (CanCHEC). Because the contract period covers between November 1, 2019 and February 28, 2020, the supplier must be able to demonstrate their ability to obtain access to both cohorts within the year of 2019.

1. The supplier must be able to demonstrate, as proven by at least one (1) peer-reviewed scientific paper, past experience in working with ONPHEC or CanCHEC. Because the ROUTE Study relies on data from ONPHEC and CanCHEC, extensive knowledge of these cohorts is required.

1. The supplier must be able to demonstrate their subject-matter expertise in developing and applying quasi-experimental methods to evaluate environmental health interventions. Dr. Tarik Benmarhnia of University of California, San Diego (UCSD) is an internationally renowned expert in health policy in air quality and climate change using causal inference methodologies. His research studies about the effects of air pollution on disease progression and policy interventions have been highly recognized in world-class scientific journals. Dr. Benmarhnia is uniquely placed to perform this work given his depth and breadth of experience on this particular subject matter.

1. The supplier must be able to demonstrate their ability to develop and apply causal mediation analysis in the area of air health effects. To understand the complex role of air pollution in affecting the trajectories of health, the ROUTE Study requires a methodology that is rooted in counterfactual causal inference framework and is capable of modeling simultaneously multiple pathways between air pollution exposure and death in the survival context and accounting for time-varying nature of air pollution exposure and covariates. A method developed by Dr. Benmarhnia contains all these required elements and can be quickly adapted to the ROUTE Study during the contract period.

1. The supplier must be able to demonstrate their ability to develop and apply a methodology that is suitable for estimating the expected benefit of a hypothetical policy (i.e., low emission zones) on reducing mortality. The ROUTE Study requires a causal inference methodology that can clearly isolate the effect of an air quality intervention from a myriad of confounding factors and is capable of quantifying the intervention effect on the entire population. Dr. Benmarhnia's causal simulation technique is the only causal methodology available meeting the requirements of the ROUTE Study.

1. A proven track record in experience in using various techniques to model air pollution exposure such as satellite-derived estimates or land-use regression (LUR) models in relation to human health effects, as proven by an extensive publication record. 

6. Reason for non-competitive award

Section 6 of the Government Contracts Regulations contains four exceptions that permit the contracting authority to set aside the requirement to solicit bids. For the proposed procurement, the following exception applies:

(d) Only One Person or Firm is capable of performing the contract.

Dr. Tarik Benmarhnia of UCSD is currently the only resource that meets all of the minimum requirements. Dr. Benmarhnia already has consent to access to the Ontario Population Health and Environment Cohort (ONPHEC) and the Canadian Census and Environmental Cohort (CanCHEC).

Dr. Benmarhnia is an internationally renowned expert in causal inference methodologies in relation to air quality and climate change health policy. He has developed novel methodologies and causal mediation procedures that are directly relevant to this project, which will allow it to be completed within the specified timeframe.

7. Applicable trade agreements and justification for limited tendering or the Procurement Strategy for Aboriginal Business

Not Applicable

8. Ownership of Intellectual Property

Copyright shall vest with the Contractor, although the Contractor shall grant the Crown a license to exercise all Intellectual Property Rights in the Materiel for any public purpose.

9. Period of the proposed contract

The contract period shall be from on or around November 1st, 2019 until February 28th, 2020, with the irrevocable option to extend the contract up to three (3) one-year option periods.

10. Estimated value of the proposed contract

The estimated value of the proposed contract is $80,000.00 (including any taxes if applicable). However, this contract will have three (3) option years built into it, dependent upon the availability of funding, worth a combined total of $240,000.00, making the total potential value of this contract over four years $320,000.00 (including any taxes if applicable).

11. Closing date and time

The closing date and time for accepting Statements of Capabilities is November 19, 2019 at 1400hrs EDT

12. Contact Person

All inquiries with regard to this Notice must be addressed by e-mail to:

Name:  Wes Phillips

E-Mail: wesley.phillips@canada.ca